Real estate of Spain: 2015 can become critical for construction sector
Published: 13/01/2015
This year will become critical for the market of the Spanish real estate, analysts from Euroconstruct consider.
By their calculations, volumes of construction of housing will grow by 5% after last year's falling for 6,5%. Experts also predict growth in 2016 (+9%) and 2017 (+11%). However, they warn that these improvements too slowly become noticeable for individuals, and in a short term will happen not in all territory of the country.
In this sense of Euroconstruct notes that the market will develop with two different speeds. "In the short term in some zones of Spain there will be conditions for construction renewal, however in others crisis will proceed", - the last research of the company says.
In the report published in Spain by Institute of construction technologies (ITEC), experts also warn that this imbalance can shake forecasts of growth in the sphere of housing. "If construction is justified only in case of existence of obvious demand, it is difficult to speak about real growth", - experts note. For this reason forecasts on 2016 (+9%) and 2017 (+11%) years "only seem essential".
Besides, Euroconstruct notes that in the left year restoration of the market of real estate was almost imperceptible for citizens as the majority of operations was made by large investors. "Reduction of prices allowed to prolong the successful moment for the wholesale market of real estate, however these improvements too slowly reach the retail market and the more so – to the market of construction", - experts emphasize.
According to representatives of Euroconstruct, the 2014th became the last year of negative tendencies for this sector then the period when it is possible to expect a certain growth – however, quite modest will begin. The number of factors which will affect these tendencies, includes weakness of demand and a surplus of the offer. Performance level of the Spanish market of construction will still remain below average values across Europe.As for construction of uninhabited buildings, authors of the report speak about contrast between certain "revival" which is felt in the market of real estate, and "virtual as paralysis" from the point of view of construction of new objects. For this reason in this sector of improvement occur more slowly, than in the sphere of inhabited construction, and it is waited by one more year of falling (-5,5% in the current year) then in the 2016th growth will be resumed (+2%). "The first signs of restoration become noticeable in the sphere of industrial construction while in tertiary sector demand for new objects is absent", - experts emphasize.
They also consider that the market of civil engineering already reached the lower limit and starts showing the first signs of growth (+2,6% in 2014) which with a certain share of probability will remain and in the 2015th (+5,4%). "It can be artificially provoked jump caused by consequences of elections of 2015 therefore it can appear a short-term phenomenon", - warn in Euroconstruct.
Representatives of the organization consider that for consolidation of restoration are necessary not only lack of macroeconomic shocks, but also increase in volumes of private investments which were up to this point made with a considerable share of care. They assume that in this segment the level of growth will make 2,4% in 2016 and 3,5% in 2017. These indicators reflect position of public administrations which seek to invest more, however are still compelled to follow the obligations for deficiency control.
